
Introduction
Last year, I expressed my concern to several people, including some very smart people, about candidate Trump’s tariff proposals. It fell on deaf ears, with the common response that tariffs will bring back manufacturing to the US. Recently, two of those that I spoke to called me and said “…you were right…”. While I wanted to write about it back then I figured it will be dismissed. Now, with multiple articles each day covering one aspect or the other, I figured it would be a good time to do a comprehensive, yet easy to consume analysis.
Tariffs and protectionism in general is a complex topic, especially in modern capitalist countries, with tremendous interdependence on goods and services. Public opinion of trade and protectionism is particularly malleable to political framing because of this complexity and thus the public is more likely to look to their own political parties to form their opinions, as opposed to analysis themselves.
The aim of this article is not to bash the current administration, nor be highly political – but to try and break down the impact of tariffs logically and make the complexity a little more accessible to all.
Tariffs and Protectionism
Tariffs, also called customs duty in some countries, is the most common form of protectionism. They have been used for hundreds of years, ever since some form of international trade existed. The US heavily adopted tariff’s in the 19th century in order to promote the growth of its infant industry. The British, as with all their colonies, did not promote or develop industrial production. The US used tariffs aggressively to grow it’s industry in opposition to the highly efficient British industrial complex of the time. This worked and led to the industrial revolution in America, which went from immature manufacturing to becoming an efficient and world beating industrial giant. This all made sense as American industry was in its infancy and needed protection against European manufacturing, which was mature and thus cheaper. There was an industry to protect and grow – the fundamental requirement for protectionism to work. Protectionism can only work if there is something to protect.
Note that during this time, there was not a significant wage gap between the US and Europe, so there was little incentive to manufacture offshore. Thus, with the tariffs, it was more profitable to manufacture and sell in America as the new frontier – leading to many manufacturing entrepreneurs to come from Europe to America – further fueling industrial growth. In addition, there was no federal taxation. Tariffs were the source of revenue for the government and thus the public were ok paying higher prices, as essentially the tariffs were their taxes. This historically supports the current argument that tariffs are a tax on the public.
As the US moved towards federal taxes and the globalization of trade grew worldwide, the use of tariffs in the 20th century declined significantly and their effectiveness has been a mixed bag of results. Post independence, India (and other newly liberated post-colonization countries) adopted very strict protectionist measures, including very limited imports with high duties and significant prohibition of foreign companies operating in the country. The aim was to promote local industry, as the British deliberately did not promote industrialization during their rule. This was essentially similar to the American situation over 250 years earlier. This worked – but only for a short while and nowhere near as successfully as expected. India started homegrown manufacturing, but the post world war global industrial expansion and technical innovation was in top gear, leaving Indian industry completely behind. After decades of protectionism, Indian industry was outdated, inefficient, riddled with bureaucracy and corruption and producing extremely poor quality products at high prices as demand was high and there was no credible competition. Made in India became a joke. Eventually, after over 40 years, foreign companies were allowed in and they helped modernize Indian production. Now, 40 years later India is a powerhouse. This spearheaded the growth of services in global trade, due to the IT revolution, as opposed to just goods – none of which could have happened without the relaxation of protectionism in the ‘80s.
During the late 20th century, tariff’s in the US have predominantly been used selectively – like a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer. The often-quoted example is the tariffs on Japanese large motorcycles in 1983 in order to protect Harley Davidson – while still debated, it is generally believed this gave the company breathing room to get its act together.
Recent articles on the tariffs on China, will state that China has been dumping cheap products into the US for decades. This is actually not true. In the 70’s onwards, the main culprits of dumping were actually Japan and Korea. The Harley case mentioned above was caused by Japan dumping cheap bikes into the US. This continued in particular with cars and electronics. These were Japanese and Korean companies directly shipping and selling their products in the US – undercutting American manufacturing significantly. There were no Chinese companies doing this, as Chinese manufacturing was still way behind. US companies had to react and sought cheaper ways to manufacture – and they discovered China with its large, very low cost, and fairly disciplined labor pool. They built factories in China, sent machinery and manufacturing technology there and taught the Chinese how to manufacture – and they lapped it up. This created a massive industrial revolution in China, like never seen before in history – leading China to be the industrial superpower today, manufacturing over 65% of the world’s goods. But note the difference – this was not Chinese companies dumping cheap goods in the US, but rather US companies looking for cheaper manufacturing facilities. Of course, over the last decade or so, many Chinese companies have matured and are now directly selling their own products into global markets. However, the majority of Chinese manufactured goods coming into the US are still produced for US companies that use China for their factories or outsourced manufacturing.
This not so subtle but important difference is often lost in the tariff debate. This can be better understood by thinking about the flow of money. When an foreign company manufactures a product offshore cheap and sells it in the US, they keep almost all the profit (except for some margin for retailers if they are involved). Thus, the foreign company is the major beneficiary, not the US economy. If the same product is sold by a US company, manufactured offshore, the US company and thus the US economy keeps the profit. So cheaper manufacturing available to US companies is both a benefit to the US consumer as well as the US economy. Targeted tariffs against foreign companies “dumping goods” into the US as opposed to blanket tariffs on all offshore manufactured goods thus would be the effective scalpel rather than the sledgehammer approach.
Changes in consumption and labor pool
As mentioned earlier, the rhetoric around tariffs is that it will bring manufacturing back to the US. In order to understand how much truth there is to this, let’s dig deeper into the changing manufacturing and consumer products over the last many decades.
Enter the lowly household clothes iron as our example. Post war industrialization in America focused on producing high quality consumer goods that were built to last. In the 50’s and 60’s, the iconic GE (later B&D) stainless steel plate iron was a workhorse. It cost about $18 back then, which is about $190 in today’s dollars. No one would pay $190 for an iron today – top of the line iron may cost $50 and the equivalent to this GE iron is about $30. The difference – the old GE iron was made to last 30-40 years, in fact I remember our family having one in the 60’s and still using it in the 90’s. Today, you buy a $30 iron, use it a few years, it breaks or stops working, you throw it away and buy another without thinking twice. In just over 50 years, we have moved to a world of highly efficient mass production of inexpensive goods and changed the consumer into a “use for a little while and replace” mentality. This is prevalent in almost all durable goods, from household goods to furniture to electronics. It is very apparent in the furniture market – before you would go to a store, pick your furniture, which would be delivered all in one piece, usually made out of solid wood by a furniture maker in NC – and it would last for decades. Now you get it delivered with all the pieces neatly packaged in a box which you struggle to put together, it is made of particle board in China or Indonesia, you use it for a few years and leave it on the curb and buy another.
All this has had a dramatic impact on the profile of our labor pool. While the politicians and casual observers will make you believe that we have lost manufacturing jobs to China and the aim of tariffs is to reverse this and bring manufacturing back – the reality is actually different. Take the lowly iron again. The old iron sold once to a consumer in 30 years. Assume it took 1 person to make and 1 to sell – their job is done for 30 years. The company makes a profit of say $10 once in 30 years. Now, the company will sell 8 irons to one consumer in 30 years, making $25 each time for a total of $200 – double the profit on a dollar adjusted basis. Sure, the one person who used to make it has lost their job, mainly due to China’s ability to mass produce efficiently and cheap – but there has been multiples of that employment created in the packaging, shipping, logistics etc. industries. Thus, the profile of the labor involved has shifted from the manufacturing worker to workers in all the other areas of the supply chain and selling of a product. This has created significant increases in jobs in the US as well as profitability of American companies. This has also led to massive innovation and creation of new businesses like Amazon and Wayfair that employ a very large number of people, despite almost all products manufactured offshore. Such companies would not exist and the jobs they created would not exist in the manufacturing methods of old. So, to say that moving manufacturing to China has killed US jobs, is completely a mischaracterization. We will come back to tariffs and manufacturing jobs a little later.
Price impact
The administration has imposed significant tariffs on countries worldwide. The tariffs have already begun impacting prices of consumer goods, however this impact is not well understood, so we will dig into that a little with some examples.
Assume a US company, like Martha Stewart, that sells some household goods, like towels, for $20. They contract manufacture in China at a cost of $5. This is a fairly common margin ratio for home goods. The manufacturer in China makes a profit of $1 to $1.50. The tariff, assuming it is 100%, will increase the cost to the US company to $10. This is important to note – tariffs are applied to the cost of the goods to the US company based on Freight on board (FOB), as opposed to the landed cost or wholesale or retail price. To cover the tariff, the US company can raise the retail price to $25, and their dollar profit remains the same, or they can raise it to $40 to keep their percentage margin the same. Usually it will be somewhere in between, say $28 or so. Thus, in this case, the 100% tariff causes the retail price to the consumer go up about 40%.
However, the impact on direct selling by an offshore company is completely different as the tariff is based on the transaction value. So, if a US consumer buys a similar towel directly from Temu or Shien for say $10, they will have to pay an additional $10 in customs tariffs – the consumer will bear the full impact of the tariffs.
In a way, this is probably good as it will reduce the selling of Chinese products direct-to- consumer, which has grown dramatically in the last several years and is probably close to $70b now. This goes back to the money flow mentioned earlier – if a US company has decided to manufacture in China, the profit helps the US economy and they should not be penalized with excessive tariffs. If a Chinese company directly sells to the US, the profits flow out of the US. In this case tariffs help level the field and may be appropriate.
Blanket tariff’s can have many consequences. The formula used to determine the tariff’s for each country was extremely simplistic, to the point of being silly. It did not factor the size of the trades, the products imported and exported, the behavior of the country, the importance of the goods to the US, the service component of trade etc. etc.
Take the case of Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast). Its main export is cocoa which we do not produce in the US and thus need to import it. It is a small country with a small net trade deficit. The simple formula imposed over a 20% tariff on them, which directly raised the price of cocoa for the US. The result – US chocolate makers, like Hershey, have to immediately raise the price of chocolate. Other chocolate making countries, in particular Europe, also face tariffs – thus ALL chocolate prices in the US will go up. This does nothing to help American companies, only harms the US consumer. A more rational approach, if the aim was to help US chocolate manufacturing, would have been to not tariff Cocoa but just tariff European chocolate. US consumers would not pay higher prices and would be compelled to buy American chocolate.
There are hundreds of consumable food products that are impacted that we cannot produce in the US due to plants being non-native, or incompatible climate conditions etc. The blanket tariff will just raise prices, period. I am a big cashew consumer, and the largest producer of cashews, Vietnam, is facing over 46% tariff’s. There are few alternatives to obtain cashews from and they cannot be grown in the US. There is little point to this tariff – it will only make my grocery bill go up. Blanket tariff’s are based on the very old concept of each country being self-sufficient in their own needs and the ability to produce almost everything they need. In today’s society and economies, all countries depend on other countries for product, raw materials, consumables etc. as each region has specialties and access to different raw materials. We will feel the effect of blanket tariffs everywhere. Soon, when you go out to your favorite Indian restaurant, expect the prices to be higher as they need to use imported spices, there is no alternative.
Complexity of manufacturing and impact on jobs
While assessing the impact of tariffs, the complexity of product manufacturing must be taken into consideration. One simplistic view, sold to the auto workers, was that tariffs on imported cars will increase US manufacturing. While this seems to make sense on the surface, Ford had to react to tariffs by raising prices on its vehicles. This is because a significant portion of a US manufactured vehicle has imported parts. Many of these parts have no manufacturing facilities in the US and have to be sourced from abroad. Similarly, products made by US companies are being used to manufacture or assemble final products in other countries. Corning, a US company, produces Gorilla glass, used by phone manufacturers around the world. A tariff on any product using Gorilla glass, thus has a component of effectively putting a tariff on Corning, thus tariff on ourselves de facto.
The main message of tariffs was related to jobs – the country was sold on the promise of bringing jobs back to the US by imposing tariffs on the world. Let’s explore this a bit deeper.
The impact to jobs varies significantly based on company size, scope and sector of the market. Many small businesses depend on inexpensive offshore manufacturing for their products. US furniture companies that sell ready-to-assemble furniture, depend on places like Mexico and China for their products. They operate on small margins and are already facing financial difficulties – now with tariffs, they are no longer viable and will shut down (several recent announcements validate this unfortunately), causing job losses. Their response is not to manufacture in the US, as it will raise their costs well beyond the consumer price point, but to seek alternative countries to manufacture in. Similarly, US bicycle manufacturers have the main parts, like frames, manufactured abroad, then they assemble and sell the bikes in the US. Tariffs will kill this industry. If they source the parts from potential US manufactures, the cost of bikes will go up 4-5 fold, leaving the industry extremely vulnerable.
Similarly, thousands of small and mid sized companies, employing many thousands of workers, make a living by designing and innovating useful physical products, and have them manufactured in places like China, where they can be made to specification quickly and cost effectively. There is no onshore replacement for this. One children’s good company looked for an US manufacturer, and even putting aside the cost, could not find anyone that could deliver the product in a reasonable time and amount. It was noted recently that the US does not have “tooling engineers”, while China has a huge number – these are the people that quickly figure out how to make the right machinery, tools, molds etc to quickly manufacture in scale efficiently.
So, the small business sector will most likely suffer job losses and shutting down of companies. Larger businesses have more ability to maneuver. They may move some manufacturing back to the US, but not roles that are very labor intensive. As I mentioned above, most car parts are imported, however the US did have a large parts manufacturing industry in the past, which could be revived for certain parts, in particular those involving metal working. Some companies, with products that are easy to manufacture in alternative countries, like garments, will arbitrage the tariff rates and move from high tariff countries to lower ones. Some may ship the products from China to somewhere else, repackage or minor value add to the product and then ship to the US. My view is that the net increase in jobs from this sector will be relatively muted.
Larger company reactions
Larger, global companies such as Apple and Nike will have different reactions. Apple already started moving its production of iPhones from China to India. But more than 80% of an iphone is made of Chinese parts – only the final assembly will now be predominantly done in India. It is ludicrous to think that Apple will assemble the phones in the US, despite the commerce secretary’s absurd statement that we want millions of workers screwing iphones in the US. That is not the kind of job that will make for a more prosperous future, and should be left to countries like India and China – and does nothing but significantly raise the price of a phone. Apple sells globally – their revenue from foreign countries is more than their revenue from the US. Manufacturing phones in the US will be terrible business for them and it will kill their global sales. So, they will continue to manufacture abroad, period. Similarly, Nike sells more in other countries than the US. They could manufacture US market shoes in the US and foreign market products offshore – but is the US consumer willing to pay 2-3 times more for a Nike shoe than anyone else in the world? No, thus Nike will never have any reason to bring manufacturing to the US.
The US does have certain sectors of manufacturing that have significant exports – one in particular is heavy machinery. The US manufactures and exports machinery for construction, agricultural and industrial use in global markets. These companies are heavily dependent on the availability of materials such as steel and aluminum. Blanket tariffs on metals increase their input materials cost. The theory is that they will turn to US providers of steel and aluminium, but the US does not have the capacity to increase their production quickly and thus the machinery companies will continue to need to import steel and aluminium. In addition, the retaliatory reciprocal tariffs will increase the prices of machinery being exported from the US, making them uncompetitive and thus they will lose market share. Some of these companies may need to react quickly and their choice will be to move their manufacturing to Canada or Mexico where they can source steel and aluminium tariff free and export their finished machinery without facing retaliatory tariffs. The result – job losses in the US.
Foreign companies will deploy different strategies. When the first wave of tariffs hit in 2017-18, China built a massive warehouse south of the border in Mexico, repackaged there and shipped into the US. They will probably do the same thing elsewhere now. Direct to consumer companies may create US based warehouses, shipping into the US (thus tariff only on the lower FOB price) and then delivering from the local warehouse. This will create logistics, shipping and warehouse jobs, but not manufacturing. Some companies, such as TSMC have announced plans to build US based plants- but this will only be for non-labor intensive manufacturing, and they will bring many skilled workers from abroad. This will create some higher tech jobs, and probably some short term construction work, but all in the control of a foreign company – again think about the money flow as the profits are going back to a non-US company. Note that this is a simplistic view as some of the profits could be used for further investment in the US.
Net result
All in all – small companies get hurt, big companies find ways around it. Small businesses have net job losses, but some job gains in a few manufacturing sectors and in logistics. There will be no millions of phone-screwing assembly line workers. The overall jobs impact will be nowhere near what is being touted – but for sure prices will rise and consumers will pay. Tariffs are nothing but a tax on consumers. Unless this is offset by tax cuts, the US middle class will suffer. Unfortunately all current tax proposals indicate little relief for the middle class, an actual increase for the low income population and tax cuts for the wealthy – the exact opposite of what is needed as the wealthy don’t really care about price increases of groceries, towels and toasters!
The US has a large service industry that provides services in countries globally. It has become a large part of US exports. However the entire tariff discussion recently has focused only on trade imbalance of goods and not goods and services. Excluding services makes our trade imbalance look worse that it actually is, in particular with Europe. This runs the risk of a backlash from Europe on the use of services from US companies, which is not being factored into the equation at all and could cause job losses in the US.
Tariff and currency
Tariff’s and global trade are complex and cannot be discussed without talking about the impact on currencies. A trade or tariff war inherently contains a currency battle. The US has historically maintained a strong US dollar policy as the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. A strong, stable dollar has the effect of creating confidence and thus greater investments in the US as well as the use of US government treasury bonds in the reserves of a country. However, a strong currency is not general good for trade as it makes US goods more expensive while making imported goods more attractive. Theoretically, when a country imports more than they export, assuming free trade, their currency should slowly drop and the other country’s currency should rise – this is the self-regulating mechanism in global trade, but it is not what really happens because the US tries to maintain dollar strength while China, labelled a currency manipulator, does not let it’s currency rise and keeps it artificially low – thus the trade imbalance continues to grow. The main economic advisor to the current administration, Steve Miran, actually believes in a weaker dollar to reduce the trade imbalance. But if the US wants a weaker dollar, and other countries want to keep their currency from rising – we de facto have a currency war. The initial impact from the tariffs has been a weakening of the dollar and a rise in many Asian currencies. While this should reduce imports and increase exports, it will not. With a lower dollar, the US purchasing power decreases making imported goods more expensive on top of which are tariffs. This should reduce imports, but as we saw earlier, the US is so dependent on imports that the only impact will be higher prices. This could lead to lower demand from consumers. Given the US economy is heavily demand and consumption based, it would have a negative economic impact. Ironically the silver lining is that decreased consumption is probably good for global climate and sustainability!
We are already seeing countries talking about moving away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, which will help to achieve Miran’s view, but could have other consequences. A weaker dollar could result in large holders of US treasuries, like China and Japan, to lighten their positions, which could send US treasuries lower and interest rates higher in the US, making it difficult to lower rates to fight the inflation caused by the tariff’s. In fact, this is one of the main weapons that China has in their back pocket, although they will probably not use it, as it could derail global financial markets and there still isn’t a true alternative to the US dollar as a reserve. Gold has shone recently as there has been a minor shift to increasing it as a reserve. All this is a gnarly situation to say the least and will be interesting to see how the administration and the Fed navigate this. There are already conversations around creating alternatives to the US dollar as a reserve currency. It is completely plausible that a strategic reserve currency basket is created, excluding the US dollar that is used by a group of countries, including China as a reserve and trade currency, undermining the importance of the US dollar.
Summary
It is very difficult to cover all the aspects and impacts of the sledgehammer approach of tariff’s. But it is clear that such tariffs will cause prices to rise across the board as well as the possibility of shortage of goods. In some cases this could be very significant. This will impact middle class America disproportionately. As for jobs, those expecting a big increase in traditional factory jobs, don’t pick up your lunchbox and toolbox just yet, as it is difficult to see a big increase in such jobs, in fact there could be job losses instead. So, what do we do – just rollover and accept it? One solution, which has been presented by politicians and policy makers in the past – is to forget about making t-shirts and hats and screwing phone together and other such labor intensive work as these are jobs of the past. Focus on the jobs of the future – high tech, robotics, AI related, chips, new energy etc etc – jobs driven by US innovation. Focus on retraining the traditional workforce so instead of bolting a car together, they can design, produce and service the robots that power the assembly lines. Let American consumers enjoy the benefit of cheap manufacturing abroad and let the US companies focus on design, innovation and the logistics of marketing and selling such products. Use tariffs to selectively protect the new high tech industries, but not cripple small entrepreneurship.
To be clear, the above analysis is based on the initial tariff announcements – it remains to be seen what the final deals look like and if they are more precise and targeted.